Market Commentary

SpaceX Went Public.What We're Watching Next.

The largest public offering in market history is done — priced at $135, up 19% on day one. But what's also interesting is what happened around the listing: the index rules that got rewritten, the products that launched within hours, and the opportunity to own the next one before it ever rings the bell.

NASDAQ: SPCX
Priced $135
Day 1 +19%
Raised ~$75B
Cap ~$2.1T

When we wrote about the SpaceX IPO before it priced, the open question was whether a $1.75 trillion company with roughly 100× sales could find a market. It did — emphatically. SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX) sold more than 555 million shares at $135, raising about $75 billion. That is the biggest initial public offering ever completed, by a wide margin. Shares opened at $150, traded as high as the mid-$170s intraday, and settled the first session at $160.95, a 19% gain that put the company's market value north of $2.1 trillion.

By the close of its second day of trading, the stock was changing hands near $200 — well above both its $135 offer and its $160.95 first-day close. What makes this listing worth a closer look isn't just the size of the deal, though. The machinery around mega-IPOs has evolved in real time, and several of those changes ripple out to broad index funds and everyday portfolios, whether or not anyone bought a single share of SpaceX.

555M+
Shares sold in the offering
~3×
Size of the prior record (Saudi Aramco)
~$176
Intraday high on debut

01 — The Result

A clean debut, by the standards of a deal this size

Big IPOs are usually messy. Heavy retail allocation, enormous hype, and a thin float are the classic ingredients for a volatile open and an ugly second day. SPCX largely avoided that. The shares were priced at $135, opened at $150 — an 11% premium — and never broke the offer price. Trading volume topped 500 million shares, yet the tape stayed relatively orderly, and the stock has carried that momentum into its second session.

The offering itself was structured for a strong print: a roughly 30% retail allocation, a deal that was oversubscribed, and a float of only a few percent of shares outstanding. SpaceX has around 13 billion shares outstanding, so even after the raise, the publicly tradable slice is small. A small float plus broad demand naturally creates upward price pressure — a helpful piece of context when interpreting that first-day move.

Figure 1 · June 12, 2026
SPCX first-day price path
$180 $165 $150 $135 offer $135 open $150 high ~$176 close $161
Stylized intraday path. Opened at an 11% premium to the offer, ran roughly 30% above the IPO price intraday, and finished up about 19%. The stock never traded below the $135 offer price.

For comparison, the prior record-holders — Saudi Aramco and Alibaba — raised far less. The scale here is its own data point: a single company absorbed a quarter of a typical full year of US IPO proceeds in one morning.

02 — Index Inclusion

The rules got rewritten — and not every index agreed

This is the part worth understanding even for investors who will never buy SPCX directly. Index membership now drives an enormous share of all buying. When a company joins a major benchmark, every fund tracking that benchmark buys it automatically — regardless of price. For a company this large with a float this small, that built-in demand is meaningful, and it's a big part of why index inclusion became such a focal point around this listing.

Ahead of the listing, both Nasdaq and FTSE Russell adjusted their eligibility rules specifically to let mega-IPOs in faster. The result is a split decision among the major index families:

Figure 2
Where SPCX stands with the major index providers
Index familyStatusTiming
FTSE RussellAddedRussell 1000 / Top 200, fast-entry — effective after June 26
MSCIAddedStandard & large-cap indexes — effective June 29
Nasdaq-100ExpectedFast-entry for top-40 names, ~15 trading days post-IPO
S&P 500DeclinedProfitability & seasoning rules unmet; no quick inclusion
S&P Dow Jones held its line, requiring four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability and a longer seasoning period — criteria SpaceX does not yet meet. FTSE Russell and MSCI used fast-entry rules introduced in 2026.

The mechanics are genuinely interesting. Funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 1000 will rebalance — trimming small slices of Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and every other constituent to make room for one large newcomer. Bloomberg Intelligence has estimated that Russell 1000 and Nasdaq-100 funds together may need to absorb roughly a quarter of SpaceX's public float, with S&P 500 funds — had they included it — accounting for close to a fifth more. For now, S&P 500 trackers (SPY, VOO, IVV) sit this one out.

The takeaway

If you own a total-market or Nasdaq-100 index fund, you'll likely pick up a small piece of SpaceX automatically as the rebalances flow through — broad-market exposure quietly doing its job. And the S&P 500's wait-and-see stance sets up an interesting second chapter: if SpaceX reaches sustained GAAP profitability, eventual S&P inclusion would bring another round of index buying that the market can already anticipate.

03 — The Product Machine

Within hours, you could buy 2× SpaceX without owning SpaceX

The modern IPO doesn't just create one ticker. It spawns an ecosystem of wrappers. Before SPCX had finished its first session, issuers had leveraged single-stock products live or filed — funds that promise twice the daily move of the stock, built not from shares but from swaps and options.

SPCL
Defiance · 2× daily
First fund with 2× SpaceX exposure from the IPO open; position established at the $135 price. Reportedly up ~56% on day one.
SPCU
Defiance · 2× daily
Dedicated 2× single-stock SpaceX fund. Synthetic exposure via swaps & options — not SpaceX shares.
LOFF
Direxion · 2× daily
Direxion Daily SpaceX Bull 2×, joining its single-stock lineup alongside its Tesla 2× fund.
SPCF / SPAL
ProShares / GraniteShares
Additional 2× long SpaceX products extending each issuer's leveraged single-stock shelf.

The speed of all this is a sign of how much investor enthusiasm there is around the name. The breadth of new products is part of what makes the space so dynamic right now. That said, leveraged single-stock funds work differently from owning the stock, and the key feature to understand is the word daily. A 2× fund targets twice the move for one trading day, then resets. Over longer holding periods, daily compounding causes returns to drift from a simple 2× of the stock's cumulative move — sometimes in your favor in a strong trend, sometimes against you in choppy markets.

Figure 3 · the product landscape
From one ticker to a full shelf in days

Within roughly 72 hours of the listing, multiple issuers had a 2× SpaceX product live or filed — a striking show of how quickly the ecosystem mobilized around the name.

IPO Day · Jun 12
SPCL
Defiance — first to market, 2× exposure from the open
+1 day
LOFF
Direxion — dedicated 2× SpaceX bull fund
+3 days · Jun 15
SPCU
Defiance — single-stock 2× launch
Filed / pending
SPCF · SPAL
ProShares & GraniteShares — more on the way
Leveraged single-stock products tied to SPCX, by launch timing. The pace reflects genuine demand — and a reminder that these daily-reset funds are built as short-term tools, distinct from owning the stock itself.

One more useful distinction: these are synthetic products. Holders own fund shares that reference SpaceX through derivatives rather than SpaceX equity itself, which means no shareholder rights and some counterparty exposure. For traders with a defined short-term view, they offer a convenient, margin-free way to express it. For long-term investors, the straightforward route is simply owning the stock — or getting broad exposure through the index funds that now include it.

04 — The Next One

The most exciting part happened before the bell

Here's the most compelling angle of the whole story. SpaceX's private valuation climbed roughly 730% — from when early venture vehicles first took a stake in 2023 to its ~$1.75 trillion IPO price. The public investor who bought at the open captured the 19% pop. The pre-IPO holder captured the 730%. That's not a knock on buying at the IPO; it's a reminder of just how much value can be created in the private years before a company ever lists.

That dynamic is the case for thinking about private exposure before a listing. The traditional hurdle has always been access — companies stay private far longer than they used to, and direct stakes were largely reserved for institutions and insiders. The encouraging development is that a growing set of fund wrappers is opening that door wider. The most prominent is the ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX), an interval fund that, notably, lets non-accredited investors hold a basket of late-stage private companies alongside public ones.

Figure 4 · ARKVX top holdings, 2026
One wrapper, several pre-IPO names — including the last one to pop
SpaceX
~14%
OpenAI
~9%
Kalshi
~4%
Anthropic
~3%
Approximate weights; ARKVX holds roughly 60–70 public and private companies, with a large share concentrated in its top names. SpaceX was its largest holding going into the IPO — a position the fund is not required to sell now that it is public. Weights shift with valuations and fund activity.

SpaceX is the proof of concept: ARKVX held it for years as a private position, and the IPO simply marked that gain to a public price. The same fund still holds OpenAI and Anthropic — two of the most anticipated AI listings on the horizon — along with names like Kalshi and Figure AI. If even one of them follows a path resembling SpaceX's, a meaningful share of the appreciation could again accrue before the stock ever trades publicly. That's a genuinely exciting prospect for investors who want a seat earlier in the journey.

It's worth knowing how these vehicles work before jumping in. ARKVX is an interval fund, meaning it offers to buy back shares on a quarterly basis rather than providing daily liquidity — a structure that suits patient capital rather than money you might need on short notice. Its expense ratio runs higher than a plain index fund, private holdings are marked less frequently, and the concentration in a handful of names means returns will track those companies closely. Access funds in this category have also traded at premiums and discounts to their underlying value over time. None of that disqualifies the idea — it just defines the kind of money and time horizon it fits.

The pop makes the headlines. The real opportunity is increasingly available years before the bell ever rings.

Used thoughtfully, private-market exposure can be a rewarding complement to a core portfolio — a way to participate earlier in the companies defining the next decade, sized so the illiquidity works for you rather than against you. The SpaceX listing is a reminder that the most interesting part of these stories often unfolds well before the first day of trading.

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Disclosures. This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice, nor a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Any direct or indirect references to specific securities — including SPCX, the leveraged exchange-traded products named above (SPCL, SPCU, LOFF, SPCF, SPAL), ARKVX, or the private companies discussed — are illustrative and should not be taken as a recommendation. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are private companies (SpaceX having only recently listed); valuations and holdings are estimates obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Leveraged and inverse products carry significant risk, are intended for short-term use, and can lose value rapidly due to daily compounding. Interval funds such as ARKVX offer only limited, periodic liquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. DePaolo & May Strategic Wealth is a registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Please consult a qualified professional regarding your specific circumstances before acting on anything referenced herein. Full disclosures available here.

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